Counterbalancing China in a post-American Asian order - The Centre for Independent Studies
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Counterbalancing China in a post-American Asian order

benjamin-herscovitch Since World War II, the United States has been Asia's benevolent hegemon.
 
Capitals across the region-from Seoul to Canberra-have depended directly on Washington for their security, while US military might has kept would-be aggressors like Maoist China at bay and underwritten common goods like freedom of navigation.
 
With China's rapid rise undermining US military primacy, a new balance of power is now needed to safeguard peace and security in Asia.
 
In my latest report, I predict that China's annual military spending will surpass US$1 trillion in 2050, making the Chinese defence budget 114% the size of the expected US defence budget.
 
This sobering projection is based on the relatively conservative assumption that China will increase its military spending from the current level of just over 2% of GDP to 4% of GDP by mid-century.
 
Indeed, Beijing arguably has a sound strategic rationale for spending much more than 4% of its GDP on its military: extensive and expanding geostrategic interests in Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa, as well as testy territorial disputes with its neighbours in the East and South China seas and on the Indian sub-continent.
 
Outside of the precise percentage of GDP devoted to defence, China is likely to match the combined naval power of Japan and the United States in the Western Pacific by the late 2020s. Moreover, Beijing already possesses supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, which have no operational US equivalents, and the world's first anti-ship ballistic missiles.
Although this military resurgence is daunting, there are promising signs that a balance of power will keep China in check.
 
India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are on track to have the world's third and fourth biggest defence budgets by mid-century, worth nearly US$300 billion and US$200 billion, respectively.
 
Combined with the still colossal US defence budget of close to US$900 billion in 2050, the coming decades will witness the formation of rough equilibrium among the four greatest regional powers: China will account for 43% of total military spending among these four powers, with the United States accounting for 37% and India and ASEAN each accounting for approximately 10%.
 
The risk of war will remain ever present while Asia's great powers are divided by clashing territorial claims and competing strategic goals. Nevertheless, Asia's emerging balance of power will be a force for peace and security as the era of American military pre-eminence ends.

Dr Benjamin Herscovitch is a Beijing-based research fellow at The Centre for Independent Studies and author of Preserving Peace as China Rises II: Preparing for a Post-American Asian Order.