Pyongyang: the truths - The Centre for Independent Studies
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Pyongyang: the truths

TS kim jong-un missile 1North Korea’s decision to launch an intermediate ballistic missile over Japan was dangerous and destabilising. But although there are no easy answers when it comes to dealing with Pyongyang, it is worth bearing in mind the following banal truths:

First, although it is self-evidently not in our interest, it makes sense to North Korea for them to have nuclear weapons. Why? Because Kim Jong-un wants to ensure the survival of his wicked regime; and nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent. The despot is not cautious, but neither is he suicidal.

Second, China has very little leverage to coerce North Korea into giving up its nuclear program. Why? Because Beijing needs Pyongyang for geopolitical reasons: the collapse of the regime would create a refugee crisis and probably lead to the reunification of the Korean peninsula under the U.S. security umbrella.

True, the Chinese don’t like how Kim sabre-rattles. After all, that antagonises Washington and its allies, might cause Japan to go nuclear and has led the U.S. to put a missile defence system in South Korea — which Beijing does not like at all. Still, the Chinese are committed to keeping North Korea intact. And if we try to impose severe economic pressure on the Hermit Kingdom, Beijing will just counter our sanctions and make sure the regime survives.

Third, a U.S.-led pre-emptive strike may provoke the very action it is designed to prevent. Why expect Kim to go gently when he has nothing to lose? The North Koreans have nuclear weapons, which they can respond with. They have thousands of artillery pieces, which they can use to hit Seoul. China would come to their rescue, and who knows where that would lead?

Finally, the U.S. and its allies should — and will — keep in place a strong, clear deterrent threat against North Korea. It was not President Donald Trump, but President Bill Clinton who warned on the Demilitarised Zone in 1993, if the North Koreans ever used nuclear weapons, “it would be the end of their country.”

Indeed, although containment can’t work against terrorists, who can run and hide, rogue states are different: they have a mailing address. And if Kim used nuclear weapons against the U.S. homeland — or U.S. allies and interests — it would guarantee massive retaliation, probably obliteration. Not ideal, but a better strategy than the alternatives.