Reality check on Scottish independence - The Centre for Independent Studies
Donate today!
Your support will help build a better future.
Your Donation at WorkDonate Now

Reality check on Scottish independence

scotlandThe Scottish Nationalist Party, holder of 54 of 59 Scottish seats in the UK House of Commons and 63 seats in the Scottish Parliament, is aggrieved at the Brexit result.

More specifically, they believe that the vote of the Scottish people was strongly in favour of remaining in the European Union and that therefore the democratic will of the Scots was being frustrated by a ‘foreign’ body in Westminster.

Ironically, the British know this exact feeling — the perception that the European parliament had sovereignty over the wishes of UK citizens was one of the key triggers for Brexit in the first place.

However none of this shared sentiment is likely to result in a second vote on Scottish independence before Brexit is complete.

First, whatever the outcome of a vote in the Scottish parliament on a second referendum, the UK parliament must also pass a law to hold the referendum (as they did for the 2014 referendum where Scotland voted to remain in the UK).

There is little prospect of such a vote passing. The Tories have an absolute majority of seats and Prime Minister May is opposed to holding any referendum before Brexit. Indeed, given the instability of Brexit combined with the uncertainty of such a referendum, it would be hard to see any future UK Prime Minister agreeing to the request.

Second, the Scottish budget is massively in deficit as a result of a fall in oil revenues. It is not clear that the EU would accept an independent Scotland as a member without substantial fiscal consolidation, something that would be very difficult at the best of times let alone when Scotland was seeking to leave the UK and the UK was seeking to leave Brexit.

This does not rule out the possibility of Scotland going it alone and simply declaring itself an independent country. However that would be an even more revolutionary step than Brexit.