The world isn’t ending tomorrow, despite what Chris Bowen claims

Chris Bowen launched today’s climate press conference like a preacher at a doomsday rally. The Climate Change and Energy Minister said Australia faces disasters for “every community,” and warned the “cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action”.

The threat sounded certain. But the climate risk assessment report Bowen was leaning on doesn’t actually say that.

In fact, the report admits “the probability of impacts occurring is challenging to assess in diverse systems and over a range of future warming scenarios, so the evaluation used expert judgement”. Translation: the scientists are speculating, methodically and carefully. But Bowen touted it as certainty.

Consider cyclones. The report states: “The frequency of tropical cyclones is likely to decrease (medium confidence)… but the proportion of category 4 and 5 events may increase (low/medium confidence).” So not more cyclones — fewer, albeit possibly some destructive ones.

Floods? “A decrease in maximum daily runoff and annual runoff totals is possible (low confidence) indicating less frequent riverine flood events… however, when floods do occur, they are likely to be higher due to higher event rainfall totals (medium confidence).” A mixed picture; not catastrophe.

Storms? “Extratropical storms (including east coast lows) are projected to become less frequent (medium confidence).”

Even where the report does assign “high confidence” — hotter and drier conditions fuelling bushfire risk — the science is far from settled. Only last week, Nature corrected an earlier study, and showing that globally, extreme fire has fallen 35% since 2000, rather than risen 220% as previously claimed.

The report claims climate change could slash property values by $611 billion by 2050. That sounds dire; but compared to the many trillions of property stock, it’s modest. For example, Australia’s housing market rose nearly triple that amount over 12 months to March 2022.

By the report’s own admission, the world has already warmed by 1.2 degrees, and Australia has experienced 1.5 degrees since pre-industrial levels. In that time, the world and Australia have both flourished. Remember the ‘millennium drought’ predictions our dams would never refill? They did. Weather variation was mistaken for a one-way trend.

Now, Bowen asks us to believe anything more than a further 25% increase in warming will tip us into catastrophe, and any cost is justified to stop it. Yet the report does not say so.

The report Bowen brandished simply doesn’t tell the alarmist story he tried to spin. It highlights risks, exposures and possible losses, but it never runs a cost–benefit analysis proving Bowen’s comparison of cost of action vs inaction.

It is being used to argue that any cost is worth it to fight climate change. Bowen insists “the science hasn’t changed… the science won’t change”.

THowever, science accepts uncertainty, and changes as new evidence emerges. It’s Bowen’s dogma on climate action that is now set in stone.

Aidan Morrison is the energy program director at the Centre for Independent Studies. Michael Wu is a senior policy analyst at the Centre for Independent Studies.