2020 foresight

Christmas and New Year are traditionally a time of forbearance and fellowship, where the old year is forsaken and old grievances forgotten. Except in politics, where it’s traditional to pass judgment on winners and losers of the 12 months past – and scope out the 12 to come.

Last year’s biggest winner was Scott Morrison. At the start of the year, you wouldn’t have wanted your last 10 bucks riding on him winning the 2019 election. Indeed, Sportsbet went so far as to pay out those who bet on Labor before the election was held.

Of course, in retrospect, it’s possible to identify many of the factors that led to his victory. Bill Shorten and Labor promised a fairly radical agenda premised on the idea that there were too many middle-class retirees not paying their fair share, who needed to be taxed to the very hilt in order to pay for a veritable Santa’s sleigh full of promises.

More broadly, it’s been a fairly positive year for the populist strain of conservatism. Donald Trump’s re-election bid is probably in better shape than anyone would have anticipated at this point in his presidency, Boris Johnson won a thumping majority in the UK, and the left appears to be doubling down on identity politics — despite the public’s aversion to it.

The opposite is true for moderate progressivism, which is really struggling in a lot of ways. They are the most likely victims of a ruthless “cancel culture” that seeks to erase any views not conforming to the absolute latest in progressive thinking.

Politically they are in retreat too. Not only has Corbyn decimated the centre of the Labour Party in Britain, his successor may be a (non) carbon copy. Biden is under attack from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both of whom are way to the left of the ordinary voter.

And in Australia, Labor has won a majority in just one of the last nine elections – that being one in which they triumphed largely by promising incremental change, not radical reform.

Yet their base, and their cheer squad in the media, are not happy with the idea of slowly building a coalition for reform.

Yet for all of this, the biggest mistake for those on the right would be to assume that these trends will continue unabated. Swings and roundabouts are the absolute norm in politics. 20-20 hindsight may be clear, but the year 2020 is anything but.

This is an edited extract of an opinion piece that was published in the Canberra Times as 20-20 hindsight may be clear, but the year 2020 is anything but