New PM, same task

Australia has its fifth Prime Minister in as many years. For various reasons Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard and now Tony Abbott have all been removed, not by losing an election, but by losing the confidence of their parliamentary colleagues.

There was a lot of speculation on the tensions in the Labor party (primarily around Rudd and Gillard) but to be surprised that the Liberal party also removed a Prime Minister is to misread recent events.

Although some may blame opinion polling, it is clear discontent lay beneath the surface of the Liberal Party for some time. In addition to leadership speculation, calls for Cabinet reshuffles, a back-bench revolt in February, and the same sex marriage debate exposed bitter internal divides.

To use a fossil fuel metaphor; opinion polls may have fracked the seam of ill-feeling, but it didn’t create the gas.

Part of the pressure comes from unfavourable economic circumstances: Australia may once again have a new Prime Minister but it has the same old problems. Economic growth remains slow, unemployment is trending up, healthcare reform has been stymied by vested interests and the task of budget repair remains largely unstarted.

Moreover, the public is yet to accept the need for substantive reform in these and many other areas.

The task for Turnbull and his team is twofold. First he must convince the public of his reasons for removing the Prime Minister they elected, just two years into his first term. These reasons must be real, Gillard’s phrase that ‘a good government that lost its way’ never resonated.

The second task is to nurture the development of a constituency for economic reform. Budget reform is just one element of an overarching reform program aimed at reducing the handbrake of government and kick-starting economic growth.

The Abbott government never completed this step. They had not prepared the ground for the 2014 budget and paid the price.

It is too early to tell what effect the change of Prime Minister will have on the government of Australia. One thing is clear, the need for leadership on economic reform is becoming more pressing.