Election 2011 – who will wag what

With a New Zealand election tomorrow it pays to look at the possible permutations that the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system might throw up. MMP is effectively designed to institutionalise hung parliaments, where coalition arrangements are necessary. The current Australian parliament, with its dog-wagging independents and Greens, is infuriating to many Australians – in New Zealand it is the norm.

Although Australian reports suggest that Prime Minister John Key’s National Party will get a majority, it is not that simple. Under an Australian electoral system, yes, National would win an unprecedented majority. Under New Zealand’s MMP system however, things are much tighter.

Seats in parliament are decided on overall share of the national vote, and although National are currently polling in the 52%-54% primary vote range, history suggests that getting over 50% is unlikely. The last popular majority was during the general strike of 1951. Even the extremely popular (at the time) Lange/Douglas government could only muster 48% of the vote in 1987 election.

If the National Party gets around 47% of the vote, and a party called NZ First gets over 5% of the vote (therefore qualifying for parliament), the Nationals could lose government despite their popularity.

In Party terms this would mean a government of Labour, Greens, Mana (a radical Marxist party), NZ First (a Pauline Hanson-esque party), and the Maori Party. It would be a highly unsatisfactory scenario – mainly because the result would be a government that absolutely no one directly voted for. What would its policy priorities be? Apart from raising the minimum wage, no one knows. It would also be unstable.

This is the problem with MMP – it’s not that it favours the Left or Right, but that it delivers uncertain outcomes that no one voted for.

So, while I hope National will win a majority, if only because the unfolding international economic situation over the next few years will require decisive government, New Zealand might also end up with a dog of a government – multiple tails wagging it, and no-one quite sure of the breed!

Luke Malpass is an analyst with the New Zealand Policy Unit at The Centre for Independent Studies. He will provide expert commentary of the 2011 New Zealand election on ABC 24 from 5pm tomorrow. His recently released the report, The Decade-long Binge: How Government Squandered Ten Years of Economic Prosperity.