Why China fears Obama: The danger of an attractive America

In contrast to the general rush in most parts of the world to congratulate Barack Obama and welcome a new era of American leadership, an initially muted response from Beijing followed by an outburst in the editorial of the state run China Daily immediately after the inauguration is significant. The enthusiasm with which Obama’s election was received in Europe will not be replicated in China. In fact, the election of Obama is likely to exacerbate long seated Chinese fears pointing to difficult times ahead in what remains the most important bilateral relationship for the world.

The outburst by the editorial in the China Daily, the official English-language newspaper frequently used by Beijing to voice its views to the rest of the world is extraordinary in its venom given the Chinese Communist Party’s usual prudence in refraining from public criticism of America. The editorial began by expressing what many already argue, that President Bush had taken a “wrecking-ball” to world affairs. But in a pointed dig against Obama and his vision for America, it argued that “The US leaders have never been shy about talking about their country’s ambition. For them, it is a divinely granted destiny no matter what other nations think.”

Straight-talking editorials in the China Daily, especially ones about America, are not issued lightly. In many respects, Beijing and Chinese policy experts are obsessed with America. For example, in an examination of one hundred recent articles by leading academics in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), I found that around four in every five articles were about America: understanding American political values and its system; and how to limit, circumvent, bind or reduce American power and influence. Within these themes, several emerged that help better understand the thinking behind editorials such as the one in the China Daily.

First, Beijing views international politics in broadly neorealist terms – the distribution of power in the world will determine tomorrow’s conflicts. In particular, China clearly sees building competition between itself and America as the defining big-picture strategic play. Beijing believes that tension can be managed but never resolved between the established power and the emerging one. It is a structural inevitability. Beijing believes that America is currently distracted by its two wars, and a weak economy, but Washington’s strategic attention will soon turn eastwards. As one prominent CASS analyst puts it, the “spearhead will soon be pointed at Beijing.”

Second, America is a unique superpower since it is seeking to relentlessly not only build and maintain its power, but also spread its democratic values. This is of grave concern to authoritarian China since it believes that America will have grave difficulty accepting a greater leadership role for Beijing while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains exclusively in power. John McCain’s ‘League of Democracies’ might never become a formality but Beijing believes that military alliances with countries in Asia prove that it is already in de facto existence.

Third, Beijing fears the American democratic process. While we see democracy as an advantage since it can offer America an institutional and bloodless process for renewal, Beijing views it as a source for irrationality and unpredictability. Casting American democracy in its worse light, many in Beijing believe that the democratic process can cause uncomfortable shifts in policy that might disrupt the best laid plans.

This brings us to why Beijing fears Barrack Obama.

In Beijing’s eyes, President Bush followed an ambitious but reckless foreign policy. In the attempt to extend American power, President Bush sacrificed American influence. President Bush’s broad ranging ‘War on Terror’ opened up huge strategic opportunities for China. As America became distracted by its two wars, China made tremendous ground in Asia – undermining America’s relationship with allies and partners in the region while putting itself forward as a uniquely ‘Asian power’ unlike Washington.

In contrast, President Obama potentially presents a difficult challenge for Beijing. Like the successive post- World War Two presidents, Obama seeks to continue protecting and extending America’s leadership role in the world – which Beijing believes is to its detriment. Yet, unlike President Bush, Beijing believes that Obama better understands the facets of American power and influence: hard power versus soft and ‘smart’ power, coercion versus legitimacy, inducements versus persuasion and the power of example. Scholars within CASS have spent hours trying to better understand the boon for American influence whenever the system throws up charismatic leaders and orators who much of the world embraced: Kennedy, Reagan and now Obama.

In short, Beijing remains wary of charismatic presidents able to replenish the reserves of American leadership and influence in the world. Like the other talented orators who were presidents such as Kennedy and Reagan, Obama’s inauguration message spoke about defending freedom against authoritarian ‘isms’ such as fascism and communism. Calling those who engage in the “silencing of dissent” as being “on the wrong side of history” sounded like a war-cry once issued by Kennedy and Reagan against the Soviet Union; but this time directed at Beijing.          

Beijing knows that President Obama cannot possibly fulfill in full the expectations thrust onto him, or he has thrust onto himself. But perhaps it will soon yearn for the return of the days of George W. Bush.

John Lee is a visiting fellow at the Center for Independent Studies in Sydney and the author of "Will China Fail?"